Provincial government releases modelling on second wave of COVID-19

Ontario could be reporting upwards of 1,000 COVID-19 cases each day in a matter of weeks according to new projections released by the provincial government.

The updated modelling, released Wednesday (Sept. 30) morning, shows the province is experiencing a second surge of cases and is a call for residents to be vigilant in adhering to public health measures.

“COVID-19 continues to be a serious threat in our communities, and today’s modelling shows the importance of adhering to public health measures,” said Minister of Health Christine Elliott in a media release.

“Over the summer we saw how our collective efforts helped slow the transmission of COVID-19, we must not let our guard down now as we head into the cold and flu season. We all need to do our part and continue to follow all public health measures in place to contain and stop the spread of the virus.”

Highlights from the modelling update show that cases are currently doubling approximately every 10 to 12 days.

“The growth in cases was initially in the 20 to 39 age group but now cases are climbing in all age groups,” reads a media release.

“Forecasting suggests that Ontario could be around 1,000 cases per day in the first half of October.”

In order to reduce the spread and the number of new cases, it remains critical that Ontarians continue to adhere to public health measures, including avoiding large gatherings, physical distancing and wearing a face covering.

“With the recent rise in cases, we limited private social gatherings and tightened public health measures for businesses and organizations to reduce the transmission in our communities,” said Dr. David Williams, Ontario’s chief medical officer of health.

“We wanted to release this modelling to be open about the challenges our province faces, and the important work we all need to do to flatten the curve.”

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